IT E-Strategies: Research Highlights
Thursday, February 05, 2004
Greetings,
I'd like to explain my "hiatus" over the past few months. First, I have spent most of the past couple/few months in China, with a professional focus on offshore systems integration outsourcing opportunities. One thing I have noticed is that a lot of IT advisory services (and as you may recall, I'm a former VP with the META Group) tend to have limited knowledge of the explosive growth in outsourcing in India. However, when it comes to China, the IT advisory services are totally clueless. I suspect that the so-called industry "gurus" can't name even one homegrown Chinese SI! They tend to have a Chicken Little and "it is better to sit on your hands" attitude. This shows a phenomenal (if not downright stupendous) amount of ignorance. There are potential pitfalls, to be sure, but as labor rates rise in India, China is THE place to look for outsourcing options. For more on this, keep an eye out for an article on this topic by yours truly to appear in AlwaysOn.
I was also assisting as the acting VP of Corporate Development for a start-up called EXEC.CC. Think of LinkedIn + Salesforce.com + WebEx. (Not exactly, but close.) Rather than an approach limited to social/professional networking, EXEC.CC took this idea two steps further to include contact management and collaboration tools. Unfortunately, the initial response from the venture community was that we are about six months too late.
Finally, I was trying to put something together with Rob Enderle, the best known industry analyst in Silicon Valley. Rob was my counterpart at Giga and left shortly after Giga's acquisition by Forrester. Anyway, we decided that our markets are a wee bit too different, with the only potential for cooperation in the wireless/pervasive/mobile space.
So this is what I have been up to. I will get back on a regular publishing schedule for this blog in May, but I plan to publish most of my feature length articles also on AlwaysOn (and I have several in the works).
Pax,
David Scott Lewis
mailto:editor@itestrategies.com
Tuesday, September 30, 2003
The July 2003 issue of The Journal of Marketing features an article titled, What Will the Future Bring? Dominance, Technology Expectations, and Radical Innovation. First, it appears that dominant firms are NOT necessarily laggards in pursuing radically new technologies. Second (and I believe the more important point), "the fear of obsolescence is a greater incentive to invest in new technologies than is the lure of enhancement." I guess Andy Grove was right: Only the paranoid survive!!
Pax,
David Scott Lewis
mailto:editor@itestrategies.com
http://www.itestrategies.com & http://itestrategies.blogspot.com
Monday, July 21, 2003
This is the first part of a two part review of several papers by Northeastern's Peter Tarasewich on devices for pervasive computing, with a spin on mobile enterprise applications. The key paper is titled, Wireless Devices for Mobile Commerce: User Interface Design and Usability, which appears in Mobile Commerce: Technology, Theory, and Applications. This review focuses on devices smaller than notebooks or with an atypical form factor, e.g., a headset.
As an analyst who covered the mobile enterprise apps space (among many other apps), I could empathize with Dr. Tarasewich's observations. Excluding laptops and tablets, it's clear that devices in other form factors, including PDAs, cell phones, hybrid devices (e.g., smartphones), wearables, and vehicle mounted, are not yet suitable for enterprise applications. However, this is not for a lack of trying. On the input side, even cameras (for video input), microphones and scanners are being considered; on the output side, think VR.
It is clear that existing methods for entering text on a cell phone are simply ridiculous. Newer text entry methods have been developed which help, but they are simply a band-aid solution. (The "better" methods will be tackled after a discussion of devices.) There are all sorts of inventions which aim (or aimed, in the case of Modo) to solve the input problem, including a half keyboard, a fabric keyboard (this might be doable), gloves [ACM DL] (including the P5 for extreme gaming), "finger rings" [ACM DL], headsets (for gaming and people with restricted mobility), and the thumbwheel-based Modo device (which just goes to show that being a "hot" product at a venture-oriented event like DEMOmobile doesn't necessarily mean very much). Of course, there are the usual suspects, like gesture recognition methods Jot and Graffiti (yawn), miniature keyboards (e.g., the Blackberry's keyboard), and speech recognition (which I hope is banned in public places by legislation). [NOTE: Arguably, gesture recognition is a method, but it's accompanied by a device: The stylus. And it's the stylus as the input device which is most closely associated with Jot and Graffiti. For the record, all studies I've seen show that Jot is superior to Graffiti. WPM -- word per minute -- rates with Jot input are about 50% greater than with Graffiti. I use Graffiti on a Samsung smartphone; a hack allows me to write on the entire screen, I use a special stylus from Cross, and I tend to be pretty fast with Graffiti. But research favors Jot.] Bottom line on input devices: No clear winner (IF there is a winner). With a gun to my head, I'd pick a variation on fabric keyboards, with thumbwheels for ultra-small devices.
At least the "input" side of the biz deserves an "A" for effort and innovativeness. The "output" side of the biz seems to be trying more of the same old, same old (higher res screens, audio output). An exception are flexible screens (today paper, tomorrow screens) and digital ink (albeit digital ink has been hyped in the past). Goggles can also be used to enlarge small displays, such as Sony's Glasstron (which is no longer being manufactured or supported), Olympus' Eye-Trek (there are those gamers again!), and Microvision's revolutionary Nomad Augmented Vision System (clearly stolen from the Borg ... and wasn't Nomad in the original Star Trek series?). Bottom line on output devices: Thumbs down on headgear, in part because it's not (and will not be) socially acceptable; cautious optimism for flexible screens circa 2007.
If there's a common theme, it's that gamers are having all the fun (wow, what a revelation!). But the idea that I'm going to wear a special glove and headgear, especially in public, gives me the creeps: It makes me think of Michael Jackson ... as a Borg!!
In a recent paper, Tarasewich took a look at various user needs. I've decided to paraphrase and edit his work based upon my own experiences as an analyst covering this space and as an end-user. First, it's absurd to think that anyone will be doing Siebel entries on a non-laptop, non-tablet mobile device. Personally, I thought using Siebel was a form of punishment ... in a desktop environment! If I had to "do Siebel" on a Palm or Pocket PC, I'd toss the handheld out the window. Before anyone starts thinking about transcoding i2 or SAP for a handheld (better yet, put it on my watch!), get a grip.
Think Palm Pilot (the original) + communications and you're probably on the right track. In other words, a calendar, an address book, a "to do" list, a memo pad and communications. For communications, let's consider voice (and v-mail) combined with IM/SMS and e-mail. What else? An app that could transcode various types of travel itineraries would be nice. Expense reports designed from scratch that can be uploaded to automatically fill in whatever expense report format a company is using. Directions and maps would be nice IFF they could be integrated with a GPS system. But this borders on telematics, so I'll pass on this for now. Business dining and entertainment suggestions would be welcome, with an optional LBS twist. So far, nothing really new. Implementation to date is a far cry from where it needs to be (i.e., it sucks), but there are no truly new apps to consider. Let's step outside the box for a moment. How about real-time collaboration and project management software? To attempt this now might be jumping the gun: Collaboration beyond Notes is still in its infancy. But let's do Notes -- and let's do it now!
I'd also include the basic Yahoo! IM-type of apps, e.g., stocks, weather, bookmarks, news (international/national, location-based and entertainment, e.g., movie reviews), and I'd also include a photo album app (especially with the proliferation of cameras integrated with cell phones and PDAs).
In Part II I'll cover methods, e.g., "wiping" and "earcons." I'll also take a 30,000 ft. perspective on sentient computing, Intel's Proactive Computing program, MIT's Project Oxygen, and the University of Washington's Portolano project (which they dub, "An Expedition into Invisible Computing").
For further reading:
Usability of Web and Wireless Sites: Extending the Applicability of the Microsoft Usability Guidelines Instrument
Pervasive Computing: A Paradigm for the 21st Century (March 2003)
Mobile, Distributed and Pervasive Computing
Pervasive Computing: Vision and Challenges
Improving Web Interaction on Small Displays
Blueberry: The Next Generation Blackberry (the two newsletters written by MobileTrax are my two favorites covering this space)
NOTE: Please log in to the ACM Digital Library before attempting to retrieve the articles marked with brackets ACM DL.
Pax,
David Scott Lewis
mailto:editor@itestrategies.com
http://www.itestrategies.com & http://itestrategies.blogspot.com
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**SPECIAL NOTICE**
Yahoo! Groups has improperly deactivated the IT E-Strategies: Paper Of The Week site. The site had reached 1,590 subscribers in barely over one month, with nearly 400 in the queue. However, Yahoo! decided to deactivate the site. For the record, 99+% of the subscribers were obtained through an opt-in list; hence, all requests to unsubscribe should have been honored by Yahoo! Groups. Their decision to deactivate the Group was unnecessary and heavy-handed. I am hoping to rectify this situation.
In the interim, all postings will be done on this blog. Matter of fact, I'd almost prefer a blog format to a more formal Y! Groups format. The advantage of maintaining a Y! Group is the capability to maintain a list of hyperlinks, full-text papers, et al.
Also, of course, the Y! Groups format is a "push" format; this blog is a "pull" format. I'm going to see which tools, if any, I can add to this blog to allow notification of new postings.
Pax,
David Scott Lewis
mailto:editor@itestrategies.com
http://www.itestrategies.com
http://itestrategies.blogspot.com
Tuesday, July 15, 2003
IT E-Strategies: Research Highlights is a blog featuring a summary and bottom line commentary on a key research paper covering an advanced information technology or strategy. A link is also provided to each selected paper. In rare situations where neither a link nor the actual paper can be provided, an author’s e-mail address is given. New entries will be posted about once per week.
Summaries are provided from over 100 research journals, including *ALL* publications of the ACM and IEEE Computer and Communications Societies (magazines, journals, conference papers and books), plus journals published by industry leaders such as IBM, Fujitsu and NEC.
This blog is targeted toward partners and managers in the IT practices of strategies consultancies (e.g., @McKinsey/McKinsey BTO) and in the strategy practices of IT consultancies/SIs (systems integrators)/VARs (value-added resellers), and senior executives in ISV PSOs (independent software vendor professional services organizations, e.g., Oracle Consulting). Secondary audiences include CIOs, ISV CXOs (as postings relate to e-strategy and IT justification research), and the "high tech" editorial staff of trade and business magazines and Global 100 dailies.
SELECTED COVERAGE AREAS:
Pervasive computing
B2B e-commerce
Supply chain management
Collaborative commerce
Customer relationship management
Outsourcing
Portals
Distance learning
IT investment and justification strategies, including ROA (real options analysis),
CFROI, AHP, VaR and ECV
Virtual communities
Grid computing
Agent-based systems
Knowledge management
Streaming media
Technological forecasting and technology assessment techniques
Telematics
Mobile commerce
Virtual reality, augmented reality and telepresence
Web services
BONUS:
Exclusive interviews with technology pioneers, including the heads of research labs.
Pax,
David Scott Lewis, Partner, IT E-Strategies, Inc.
mailto:editor@itestrategies.com
Formerly held positions:
Vice President, E-Business Strategies, The META Group, Inc.
Director, E-Business Strategic Development, Oracle Corporation
Manager, New Market Development, Microsoft Corporation
http://www.itestrategies.com
http://itestrategies.blogspot.com
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Wednesday, July 09, 2003
An Affiliated Search System for an Electronic Commerce and Software Component Architecture
An article with some great ideas on how to build a better search engine specificially for B2C and/or B2B e-commerce applications.
Pax,
David Scott Lewis
Tuesday, July 08, 2003
Simple Decision Making Criterion as Real Options
I'd like to alert our group members of a paper recently presented at the IEEE International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering in Hong Kong.
The paper is titled, Simple Decision Making Criterion as Real Options. The version of this paper which is accessible as a PDF file is a superb, up-to-date review article on real options analysis (ROA). Several "classic" sources are cited, e.g., the book written by McKinsey's Tom Copeland, Tim Koller and Jack Murrin, and a couple of features which appeared in Harvard Business Review.
Group members may also want to review others papers published in the conference proceedings. (A particular personal favorite is titled, Evolved Hybrid Auction Mechanisms in Non-ZIP Trader Marketplaces. Simply put, this paper is on the use of genetic algorithms for Net market auctions -- a space I covered when I was with The META Group.) The conference papers are accessible from the IEEE Computer Society Digital Library. IMHO, the only downside is that the ROA examples pertain to gold mining; too, there are some typos in this draft edition.
Overall, this is an excellent addition to the literature on real options analysis.
Tell a friend about this weblog.
Pax,
David Scott Lewis
Saturday, July 05, 2003
IT Doesn't Matter
The May 2003 issue of Harvard Business Review features an article titled, IT Doesn't Matter. This article was written by Nicholas G. Carr, HBR's editor-at-large. A debate about Carr's musings with industry luminaries John Hagel and John Seely Brown (among others) can be accessed through the HBR home page.
This article is stirring a lot of dedate. Frankly, I personally believe that Carr is showing his ignorance of IT -- and quoting the likes of Oracle's Larry Ellison hardly helps to make his case. But the article is worth reading; the debate is even better! As someone who has worked for both Oracle and Microsoft, and has been an e-business industry analyst (for The META Group), reality is somewhere in between, although leaning toward the Hagel and Brown camp.
We have to be careful to separate current calamities from future possibilities. The near-term may look bleak, but IT is still in it's infancy. To bash IT because venture capitalists were stupid enough to fund over a dozen companies selling pet food over the Internet is to miss the point -- and potential -- of IT investments.
Pax,
David Scott Lewis
Monday, June 23, 2003
LEGAL NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS TO IT E-STRATEGIES: PAPER OF THE WEEK
*** Please note that as a subscriber to IT E-Strategies: Paper Of The Week, you agree to comply with international and U.S. copyright laws and will not redistribute in any form any papers downloadable from this site. ***
Pax,
David Scott Lewis
Greetings,
Mailing of the first issue is scheduled for early July and will feature a paper titled, "Wireless Devices for Mobile Commerce," which appears in the recently published book, Mobile Commerce: Technology, Theory, and Applications. The second issue will feature a paper co-authored by Wharton's George Day which appeared in the Winter 2003 issue of California Management Review. Day's paper is titled, "Shakeouts in Digital Markets: Lessons from B2B Exchanges."
Pax,
David Scott Lewis
Sunday, June 22, 2003
Greetings,
This is the weblog for the IT E-Strategies: Paper Of The Week site.
The purpose of this blog is to notify e-newsletter subscribers of noteworthy papers which may not be selected for summarization and commentary as a "Paper Of The Week." Since the purpose of the e-newsletter is to provide summarization of and commentary on articles which can be retrieved in full-text, papers which I receive in printed form and papers which I purchase are likely candidates for discussion on this blog.
In addition, subscriber discussions about selected papers will occur on this site, NOT on the "official" e-newsletter site, http://www.itestrategies.com.
Pax,
David Scott Lewis
